Bitcoin has risen by approximately 35% since its August 2026 lows of around $63,500, reaching a range of $83,000 to $84,000 by late September. Despite this growth, futures open interest has declined, suggesting the rally is supported by spot market demand rather than leveraged positions.
Data from Bitfinex indicates that aggregate BTC futures open interest fell by nearly 20% in BTC terms, dropping to approximately 625,000 BTC. This decline represents a significant reduction in leverage for 2026. A major portion of this drop occurred on August 19, 2026, when 85% of market liquidations affected short positions.
As of early October, Bitcoin prices stabilized between $82,000 and $85,000. During this period, perpetual futures open interest across trading venues ranged between $35 billion and $54 billion. Analysts note that institutional inflows into exchange-traded funds and short covering are currently driving market activity.
Market observers suggest that the current environment, characterized by reduced leverage and steady institutional participation, may lead to more sustainable growth. Future market direction will likely depend on ETF flow data and potential shifts in BTC-denominated open interest.
