Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have significantly reduced their expectations for Bitcoin to reach $200 000 by the end of 2026. Current market data shows only a 2% probability for this price milestone, marking a record low for these specific contracts.
The contracts are settled based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index. As of early October 2026, Bitcoin was trading in the range of $82 000 to $84 000. To hit the $200 000 target, the asset price would need to more than double before January 1, 2027.
Market participants are shifting their focus toward more modest price targets. Contracts betting on Bitcoin reaching $90 000 currently hold a 63% implied probability, while the likelihood of hitting $100 000 is estimated at 28%.
Bets on higher price levels, specifically in the $150 000 to $190 000 range, are currently trading in the single digits. This trend reflects a steady decline in bullish sentiment, as Polymarket odds for the $200 000 target have dropped from approximately 4% in September.
