Long-term Bitcoin investors, defined as those holding coins for six months to ten years, have returned to a state of net unrealized profit. This shift marks the end of a period of compressed profitability, which analysts describe as shallow stress.
In October 2025, Bitcoin reached a peak of approximately $126 000. Following this, the MVRV metric for long-term holders tightened significantly, though it did not reach the levels of extreme capitulation typically associated with market cycle tops.
As of late September 2026, Bitcoin is trading near $84 000. This price remains well above the realized price for long-term holders, which currently sits in the range of $48 000 to $50 000.
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that realized profit for this cohort is currently between 72% and 78%. This is a notable decline from the 350% peak observed in December 2024, reflecting a cooling market sentiment.
In August 2026, long-term holders sold approximately 260 000 BTC. However, sell-side pressure has moderated heading into September, suggesting that the outflow was a discrete event rather than the start of a broader distribution trend.
