Since 2016, the Federal Reserve has implemented seven rate hikes that immediately followed a one-meeting pause. Historical data shows that Bitcoin consistently finished lower 30 days after each of these specific events, recording a median decline of 2.4%.
Current market expectations, based on Polymarket and CME FedWatch data as of November 5, 2026, indicate a 67% probability of another rate hike occurring on December 9. This follows the Fed's recent actions of raising rates on September 16 and pausing on October 28.
The historical pattern highlights a notable instance in 2018, when Bitcoin experienced a 42% drop between the midterm election and the subsequent December rate hike. While Bitcoin's performance in these scenarios has been uniformly negative, stock market performance has remained split.
