Analysts at Bernstein project a structural shift in prediction markets, with financial assets like cryptocurrencies, stocks, and commodities expected to account for 49% of total volume by 2035, up from 38% for sports. The total annual trading volume on these platforms is forecasted to reach $10 trillion by 2035, compared to approximately $410 billion in 2026.
Industry activity grew from $50 billion in 2025 to $300 billion between January and August 2026. In 2025, sports accounted for 61% of volume, while financial contracts held 12%. The shift is driven by short-term crypto and commodity contracts, including 15-minute bitcoin markets. On Kalshi, crypto contract share rose from under 5% in January to 20% in August.
Commodity contract turnover on Kalshi surged from under $2 million in 2025 to $590 million in 2026, with $410 million recorded in August alone. Kalshi captured 60% of total market volume in the first eight months of 2026. Meanwhile, on Polymarket, sports contracts made up 52% of global volume in 2026, while crypto accounted for 21%.
Bernstein expects the introduction of new products, such as KPI-based markets tied to corporate metrics like production volume or subscriber growth. Additionally, platforms are expanding perpetual futures beyond crypto into commodities and individual stocks. The firm estimates the total financial asset market at $700 trillion in 2025, growing to $900 trillion by 2035.
Regulatory uncertainty remains a hurdle for the U.S. market, particularly regarding sports contracts. Analysts do not anticipate legal clarity until 2027–2028 due to conflicting court rulings on federal derivatives oversight and state-level gambling regulations. Previously, in April, Bernstein had forecasted a $1 trillion annual turnover for prediction markets by 2030.
