Analysts expect US core CPI for August to fall between 2.3% and 2.4% year-over-year, down from July's 2.5% reading. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the data on September 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET, which will influence the Federal Reserve's decision at the upcoming September FOMC meeting.
TD Securities forecasts a 2.3% year-over-year figure with a month-over-month increase of roughly 0.19%. Other analysts predict a rate around 2.4%. On the prediction market Polymarket, traders are pricing a 42% probability for 2.4% and a 34% chance for 2.3% year-over-year.
The decline in core CPI is primarily driven by falling prices for goods such as used cars, apparel, and household furnishings. However, services inflation remains firm, particularly due to shelter costs, including rent and owners' equivalent rent.
Analysts warn of upside risks from tariff-sensitive goods categories, as import duties could push retail prices higher. If core CPI reaches 2.6% or above, it could force a rapid repositioning across asset classes.
The August report will indicate whether the disinflation trend continues into the fourth quarter and moves toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target. July's 2.5% core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was the lowest annual reading in five months, with a 0.2% month-over-month gain.