Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts that the current multi-trillion-dollar investment in AI data centers will lead to an inevitable crash and subsequent government bailout. According to Forbes, estimates for US infrastructure spending range from $2.8 trillion by 2030 to $10.3 trillion by 2032, with developers having already secured at least $1.3 trillion in debt.
Hayes suggests that the market is currently overbuilding, which will result in an abundance of cheap computing power. He points out that major players like OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic are not yet profitable. Columbia economist Stijn van Nieuwerburgh estimates that achieving a 10% return on these investments would require $3.7 trillion in annual revenue by 2032.
The former executive expects the market to face a critical test between late 2027 and 2028. He believes that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will serve as a primary vehicle to absorb the excess liquidity generated by potential bailouts. Hayes noted that he prefers this strategy over shorting AI companies, which he does not consider a viable investment opportunity.
The AI sector has already influenced the crypto mining industry, with companies pivoting toward AI computing to leverage their access to power. Riot Platforms recently signed a 20-year lease with Anthropic valued at $9.1 billion for 191 megawatts in Texas. To fund this transition, Riot reduced its Bitcoin holdings from 15 680 BTC to 11 380 BTC during the second quarter.
