ARK Invest projects Tesla stock could reach $4,400 per share by 2031, representing a nearly 12-fold increase from the October 19 closing price of $368.06. The firm attributes 80% of Tesla's projected 2031 enterprise value to its robotaxi business, which is expected to generate $753 billion in net revenue from 8.1 million vehicles.
The updated model forecasts total revenue of $1.45 trillion by 2031, with car sales reaching 10.2 million units, up from 1.6 million in 2025. Additionally, the Optimus humanoid robot segment is expected to contribute $212 billion from 1 million units sold. ARK anticipates Tesla's cumulative AI infrastructure spending will rise to $225 billion by 2031, compared to $7 billion at the end of 2025.
Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025, currently operating in 7 cities across 3 states. The fleet has recorded over 1 million unsupervised miles in approximately 7 months. Despite this, ARK characterizes the rollout as slower than initially anticipated, citing regulatory hurdles, potential leadership changes, and global crises as primary risks to its long-term forecast.
Analysts from Nasdaq expect Tesla's third-quarter earnings to reach $0.21 per share, a decrease from $0.37 reported a year prior. ARK Invest acknowledges that its models carry a positive bias and notes that actual financial outcomes could be significantly lower than these projections. The firm previously estimated a stock price of $2,600 by 2029 in its 2024 model.
