CryptoQuant analysts report that short-term Bitcoin holders have reached a 21-month high in unrealized profits, currently at 33%. This trend, combined with a decline in spot and derivative market demand, suggests a potential short-term market correction. On September 22, investors realized a record 25,700 BTC in daily profits for 2026.
Market data shows a cooling trend as spot demand dropped by 170,000 BTC over 30 days. Speculative liquidity in futures fell from 164,000 BTC in mid-September to 16,000 BTC by month-end. Meanwhile, altcoin exchange inflows hit 76,000 transactions, the highest level since October 2025, signaling increased selling pressure.
Analysts identify $80,000 as the primary support level, corresponding to the 365-day moving average. Further support levels are pegged at $71,000 and $67,000. JPMorgan estimates the Bitcoin production cost at $85,000, noting that prices above this threshold reduce the risk of forced miner sell-offs.
Macroeconomic factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, are impacting sentiment. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5.17%, while real yields reached 2.83%. Bitfinex analysts expect price consolidation between $84,000 and $87,722 until the end of the quarter on September 30.
