A recent study by TRM Labs reveals that autonomous AI agents account for only 0.6% to 7.5% of the total payment value processed through the x402 protocol. The analysis examined approximately $52.7 million in transaction volume across the Base, Solana, and Polygon blockchains, starting from May 2025.
The x402 protocol, launched by Coinbase in 2025, utilizes the HTTP 402 status code to facilitate machine-to-machine commerce. While the system is designed to enable autonomous agents to perform pay-per-call transactions, the research indicates that conventional software scripts and automated processes currently drive the majority of the activity.
TRM Labs filtered the initial data to isolate genuine commerce, reducing the analyzed volume to $25.62 million. The firm identified agent-driven payments by looking for sustained activity, payments to multiple sellers, and transaction patterns involving small, varying amounts. However, the study notes that distinguishing between AI agents and traditional scripts remains difficult on-chain.
The data highlights the dominance of stablecoins within the protocol, with USDC accounting for 99.6% of the total settled value, or $52.47 million. The composition of traffic has shifted over time, moving from meme-token minting to agent-payment routers by mid-2026.
The findings suggest a potential compliance challenge, as current agent registries are voluntary and rarely used. TRM Labs recommends the development of improved machine-readable reputation systems and monitoring tools that focus on transaction volume rather than traditional dollar-based thresholds to better manage agentic payment risks.
