On September 23, the 5-year US Treasury yield rose by approximately 15 basis points, moving from 4.83% to a range of 4.96–4.99%. This shift reflects market adjustments to expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy.
The 10-year Treasury yield exceeded 5% for the first time since 2007, reaching 5.054–5.08%. Simultaneously, the 2-year note reached 4.80–4.86%, and the 30-year bond yield climbed above 5.3%.
Two primary factors influenced the market: PMI data indicated that US business activity reached a five-year high due to increased orders, and Fed Governor Michael S. Barr suggested that further interest rate hikes might be necessary.
Barr cited persistent inflation in the services sector and potential economic overheating linked to AI-related capital expenditures as key concerns. Market participants have consequently reduced expectations for near-term policy easing.
