The benchmark 10-year US Treasury note is approaching a 5% yield as market participants brace for potential Federal Reserve action. Analysts suggest that upcoming CPI data may not be enough to stop a rate hike at the next meeting.
Market expectations for the FOMC meeting scheduled for September 15–16 have shifted. The probability of a pause in interest rate hikes has declined, with current pricing indicating only a 38% chance of a pause sequence, down from 46% a day earlier.
Rising Treasury yields are influencing broader borrowing costs, including mortgage and auto loan rates. Investors are now closely monitoring upcoming inflation reports and statements from officials such as Chairman Kevin Warsh and Governor Michelle Bowman.
