The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached 4.943% on September 10, marking the highest level since October 2023. Simultaneously, the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.37%, a peak not observed since 2001. These movements follow rising oil prices, with Brent crude exceeding $107 per barrel, and persistent inflation levels.
The US federal deficit currently tracks near 6% of GDP. Plans for a $5,000 check distribution are projected to increase the deficit by over $1 trillion. Recent market activity included a Treasury buyback operation that accepted $5.2 billion against a $6 billion target, alongside a $22 billion auction of 30-year Treasuries at a 5.308% yield.
Global financial pressure increased as the European Central Bank raised its main interest rate to 2.5% on September 10. In the US, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have risen to approximately 7%. Market participants currently estimate a 67–72% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike during the meeting scheduled for September 16.
