The 30-year Treasury yield has remained above 5% for 55 days in 2026, marking the longest such period since 2006. As of early September 2026, the 10-year yield is approximately 4.78%, the 2-year yield is near 4.37%, and the 30-year yield stands at roughly 5.24%.
The 2s10s spread is currently about 41 basis points, while the 3-month to 10-year spread is 87 basis points. Market volatility is driven by Federal Reserve uncertainty and the policies of Chair Kevin Warsh, who took over in late May 2026 and shifted the bank toward a strict data-dependent posture with less forward guidance.
On August 28, comments from Kevin Warsh suggested a possible rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, which briefly pushed the 10-year yield above 4.8% and increased rate-hike odds to 50% or higher. Upcoming labor market reports will be critical in determining whether a hike occurs.
Corporate debt issuance reached $1.68 trillion through August 2026, representing a 27% increase compared to the same period last year. A significant portion of this borrowing is dedicated to AI-related capital expenditures, including data centers and chips, coinciding with heavy Treasury issuance to fund US government fiscal deficits.
