US refiner stocks, including Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66, saw their value more than double in 2026. This growth was driven by high crack spreads, which previously exceeded $100 per barrel, supported by strong export demand.
The rally is now facing pressure as Republican lawmakers, including Senator Chuck Grassley and Representatives Ashley Hinson and Tim Burchett, discuss potential export restrictions on diesel. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has also indicated a willingness to examine this option.
The US produces approximately 5.3 million barrels of distillates per day, with domestic demand at 3.6 million barrels. The remaining 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels are exported. In late August 2026, exports averaged 1.8 million barrels per day.
On September 21, 2026, diesel prices reached a record $6.51 per gallon. While some lawmakers push for restrictions, the White House stated on September 21-22 that it is not considering an export ban.
Analysts estimate a 35% probability that an export ban will be enacted before the midterm elections. If implemented, such a policy could significantly impact the revenue streams of major refiners by removing a primary export outlet.
