The S&P 500 index rose by 13% to 16% during the first year of President Trump’s second term, covering the period from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2026. This performance marks the weakest start for a new presidential term since 2005, when George W. Bush began his second term.
In comparison, the index surged by 24.1% during the first year of Trump’s initial term in 2017. The market recorded 39 new highs in the first year of the current term, which is nearly 40% fewer than the 62 highs reached in 2017. Data from Fundstrat indicates that policy decisions, such as April 2025 tariff adjustments, drove significant daily volatility.
According to MSCI, global equities outside the United States outperformed the S&P 500 during this period. Meanwhile, President Trump has set a target for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to reach 100,000 by the end of his term, a goal that would require the index to roughly double from its early-2025 levels.
Market analysts note that the current administration's policies have particularly impacted the defense and banking sectors. As of mid-2026, the market continues to show gains, though risk managers remain focused on the ongoing volatility and the potential for speculative behavior among retail investors.
