Donald Trump has proposed a plan to provide every adult American with a 5 000 USD payment if the Republican party retains control of Congress in the upcoming November elections. The total cost of this initiative is estimated at approximately 1.2 trillion USD. The proposal remains a campaign promise and would require approval from Congress to be implemented.
JD Vance has suggested that the funding for the program could be sourced from tariffs, though current tariff revenues are insufficient to cover the 1.2 trillion USD cost. The plan also includes a potential provision to exclude wealthy Americans from receiving the payments. The proposal is currently under discussion as part of the broader Republican election strategy.
Historical data from the Cleveland Fed indicates that previous stimulus payments influenced market behavior. In April 2020, following the distribution of COVID-related checks, Bitcoin trading volume increased by approximately 3.8 percent. Similar trends were observed in March 2021, when Bitcoin prices rose from roughly 56 500 USD to over 60 000 USD following the issuance of 1 400 USD stimulus checks.
Research from the National Bureau of Economic Research suggests that earlier stimulus rounds contributed to increased retail buying activity in the stock market. However, historical precedents from 2001 and 2008 show that direct cash injections do not guarantee market growth, as broader economic conditions can offset the impact of household stimulus payments.
