Donald Trump has pledged to distribute a 5,000 USD payment to every eligible American adult, termed the Trump Dividend, should the Republican party secure a full victory in the 2026 midterm elections. This initiative would cover approximately 240 to 250 million citizens, with a total estimated cost exceeding 1,2 trillion USD.
The proposal faces significant skepticism from prediction markets. Data from Polymarket as of early October indicates only a 7 percent probability of a full Republican sweep, which is the necessary condition for the plan's implementation. Conversely, a Democratic victory is currently assigned a 65 percent chance, with a split Congress at 29 percent.
The Polymarket contract for the 2026 midterms has already recorded over 16 million USD in trading volume. Analysts note that the funding mechanism for the 5,000 USD payments remains unclear, as projected tariff revenues are insufficient to cover the total cost of the program, leading many market participants to view the promise as campaign rhetoric.
Historical data from the Cleveland Fed regarding previous stimulus payments showed that only 0,02 percent of funds were directed into Bitcoin, resulting in a 3,8 percent increase in buy volume and a 0,7 percent price rise. Current market observers suggest that while a massive liquidity injection could influence Bitcoin prices, the market is currently driven more by macroeconomic conditions.
