Rick Bensignor, founder of Bensignor Investment Strategies, projects that the US 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 6.07%. This forecast represents a significant increase from the current level of approximately 4.78%. The strategist bases his outlook on a multi-year uptrend line and a 200-week moving average analysis.
Historically, the 10-year yield reached a peak of 15.8% in the early 1980s and hit a record low near 40 basis points. Bensignor suggests that a minimum upside target for the current cycle is 5.6%. He notes that market participants may be underestimating the potential for rates to climb, citing his own mortgage experience from 1987 when rates exceeded 7%.
Bitcoin has never operated in a high-yield environment like the one currently projected. Rising Treasury yields typically shift capital toward safer, income-generating assets, which may pressure Bitcoin's narrative as a hedge against currency debasement. US federal debt has now surpassed $40 trillion.
Currently, Bitcoin trades near $80,138, which is approximately 37% below its all-time high. Market analysts are observing whether Bitcoin will maintain its status as digital gold or react as a risk-sensitive asset if yields continue to climb. Recent bond market volatility highlights the potential for yield spikes to impact broader financial markets.