Brokerage firm TD Cowen has updated its long-term Bitcoin forecast, projecting a price of $280,000 by 2029. This outlook is based on an estimated annual appreciation rate of 20% to 30%. The revision follows a strong third quarter in 2026, during which Bitcoin closed at approximately $76,000, exceeding the firm's previous expectations.
For the end of 2026, TD Cowen raised its Bitcoin price target to approximately $109,000. This adjustment reverses a previous downgrade from September, when the firm had lowered its year-end projection to $97,500 due to market weakness. Achieving the new target would require significant growth during the final quarter of the year.
Despite the improved Bitcoin outlook, TD Cowen maintained its price target for MicroStrategy at $260. Analysts noted that while well-managed treasury companies could potentially outperform spot Bitcoin holdings by 50%, stock issuance at MicroStrategy may dilute per-share gains, offsetting the benefits of rising Bitcoin prices.
The firm highlighted a shift in institutional strategy, moving away from simple buy-and-hold approaches toward more complex exposure strategies. TD Cowen emphasized that the success of managed treasury vehicles in beating direct ownership depends heavily on disciplined capital raising and the management of share dilution.
