Vincent Deluard, a global macro strategist at StoneX, anticipates a shift in market sentiment following the November midterms. He suggests that while current market conditions remain stable through the upcoming Anthropic IPO, the pace of capital expenditure in the artificial intelligence sector is unsustainable in the long term.
Deluard identifies rising Treasury yields, increasing oil prices, and the yen carry trade as critical indicators approaching a breaking point. He warns that these factors, combined with the potential for equity market volatility, may lead to a broader economic downturn. Consequently, he plans to adopt a bearish stance on stocks after November.
Despite his cautious outlook on equities, Deluard maintains a bullish position on Bitcoin and gold. He views these assets as effective hedges against the long-term debasement of the US dollar, particularly in the event of a return to quantitative easing policies. His analysis also covers the implications of the French bond market crisis and its potential to trigger contagion across the Eurozone.
