Standard Chartered has adjusted its forecast for the stablecoin market, pushing the expected timeline to reach a $2 trillion capitalization from 2028 to 2030. The bank attributes this shift to a slowdown in token supply growth, noting that the market has remained within a range of $300–320 billion over the past year, with current estimates at $309 billion.
Despite the supply stagnation, on-chain transaction volumes have grown significantly, reaching nearly $10 trillion per month in 2026 compared to $4 trillion in 2025, with a peak of $19 trillion in May. The average velocity of tokens has doubled to approximately 30 times per month. USDT velocity averages seven times, while USDC velocity has increased from 45 to 80 times.
The bank highlights distinct use cases: USDT is primarily used for savings in emerging markets, whereas USDC is utilized for payments and financial operations, including settlements between AI agents. Standard Chartered anticipates intense competition in the payments sector from projects like Open USD, M^0, and the A+ network.
Regulatory developments remain a key risk factor for the market. The implementation of rules similar to the US GENIUS Act could alter the competitive landscape, potentially impacting the market share of established issuers like USDT, especially if bank-issued or collaborative stablecoins gain traction.
