Sinopec, a major Chinese oil company, projects a decline in the country's oil demand by 600 000 barrels per day in 2026. This forecast represents an 8.9% drop in apparent demand compared to the previous year, suggesting that consumption in China may have already peaked.
The forecast has influenced prediction markets regarding the probability of crude oil hitting a new all-time high. The likelihood of this occurring by September 30, 2026, is currently priced at 1.4%, up from 1% the previous day but down from 3% a week ago.
Market participants also adjusted their outlook for the end of 2026. The probability of crude oil reaching a new record high by December 31, 2026, is now 10.5%, a decrease from 14% recorded one week earlier.
Analysts are now focusing on upcoming data from the International Energy Agency and OPEC to assess global demand trends. Future market shifts may also depend on geopolitical stability in the Middle East and potential changes in energy policies.
