Samsung Electronics is set to release its preliminary Q3 earnings guidance this Thursday. Analysts project an operating profit of ₩106.1 trillion, which would represent a fourth consecutive record quarter. This figure is nearly nine times higher than the ₩12.17 trillion reported in the same period last year and would surpass the Q2 record of ₩89.5 trillion.
Despite the growth, market expectations have softened, with the LSEG SmartEstimate for profit dropping 7.7% since late August. This adjustment stems from slower growth in memory chip prices and a 14.3% appreciation of the won against the dollar during the third quarter, which negatively impacts overseas earnings.
Analysts estimate Samsung’s Q3 memory operating margin will remain steady at 76%. Meanwhile, TrendForce forecasts that conventional DRAM contract prices will rise by 10% to 15% in Q4, a significant deceleration compared to the 60% jump seen in the second quarter. Samsung aims to secure long-term contracts for two-thirds of its memory output.
In the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) sector, Samsung is actively competing with SK Hynix. J.P. Morgan projects that Samsung’s HBM market share will grow from 20% in 2025 to 34% by 2026, while SK Hynix’s share is expected to decline from 60% to 46% over the same period, supported by shipments of Samsung’s latest HBM4 chips.
Samsung shares are currently trading at ₩271,750, which is approximately 27% below their 52-week high of ₩374,500. Despite recent volatility, the stock has risen 111.48% in 2026. Investors remain cautious, closely watching how the market reacts to the upcoming guidance following previous instances where record profits led to share price declines.
