The S&P 500 bull market reaches its four-year milestone this Monday, having climbed 119% from its October 2022 low. The index recently hit a record closing high of 7,818.93 on October 6, compared to 3,577.03 at the start of the cycle on October 12, 2022.
In 2025, the index experienced a decline of 18.9% on a closing basis, narrowly avoiding the 20% threshold that defines the end of a bull market. Some market participants argue the current cycle is only 18 months old, dating it from an intraday drop of over 20% in April 2025.
Historical data from Yardeni Research shows that six previous bull markets continued past the four-year mark. While the 1987 run lasted over 12 years and the 2009 run nearly 11 years, others like the 1957 cycle concluded just seven weeks after reaching the four-year age.
Current valuation metrics from FactSet indicate the index trades at approximately 26 times past-year earnings, which is above the 10-year average of 23.6. However, projections for earnings over the next 12 months align the index closer to its historical 10-year average.
