Russia has updated its 2026 crude oil export forecast to 244.7 million tons, marking an increase of 7.5 million tons from the May estimate. This shift occurs despite a projected drop in oil and condensate production to 494.2 million tons, the lowest level since 2009, compared to 511.4 million tons in 2025.
The rise in crude exports is attributed to reduced domestic refining capacity caused by infrastructure damage. Consequently, Russia is prioritizing domestic fuel supply, leading to a projected decline in refined product exports to 98.5 million tons in 2026, a 27.3 million ton decrease from 2025 levels.
Forecasts for 2026 through 2029 have been reduced by 16 to 20 million tons. Crude shipments are expected to peak in 2026 before falling to 216.6 million tons by 2028–2029. The current draft forecast is scheduled for finalization by the end of September 2026 as part of the federal budget process.
Increased Russian crude shipments to China and India are expected to pressure Middle Eastern suppliers. Meanwhile, the decline in refined product exports creates a supply gap that may influence global refining margins, affecting markets in the Middle East, Asia, and the US Gulf Coast.
