Traders on the prediction market Polymarket are now assigning an 80% probability that OpenAI's IPO will result in a market capitalization of $1.5 trillion or more by the end of 2027. This represents a significant increase from the 35% probability estimated earlier this year.
As of September 2026, the trading volume for the contract tracking the company's closing market cap has exceeded $233,000. The sentiment shift was driven by a funding round in March 2026, where OpenAI raised capital at a post-money valuation of $852 billion.
On June 8, 2026, OpenAI filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, initiating the formal public offering process. The company currently reports annualized revenue of approximately $25 billion, generated from ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise API contracts.
The market is also pricing in a 95% probability that the IPO will close above $1 trillion. However, the company continues to report GAAP losses due to high infrastructure costs, including data centers, chip procurement, and electricity for AI models.
In 2025, OpenAI restructured its corporate governance, moving from a capped-profit model to a conventional for-profit public benefit corporation. This structural change was a necessary prerequisite for the S-1 filing and the eventual IPO.