Traders on the Polymarket prediction platform have lowered their expectations for an OpenAI IPO valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion. The probability of reaching this milestone has fallen from 80% to 58%.
This shift follows the company's decision in September 2026 to postpone its IPO from late 2026 to 2027. CEO Sam Altman cited safety and AI alignment as primary reasons for the delay.
Market conditions, including volatility following the SpaceX IPO in June 2026, have also influenced the outlook. Altman has stated that an IPO valuation below $1 trillion is not acceptable.
In March 2026, OpenAI raised $122 billion at a post-money valuation of $852 billion. The company is currently in early discussions for a new round targeting $30 billion at a pre-money valuation of $1.4 trillion.
By August 2026, the company's annualized revenue run-rate reached approximately $40 billion, a 70% increase since July. Despite this, the firm continues to report substantial losses due to high compute spending.
