OPEC has reduced its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the fifth consecutive month. The latest projection stands at 380,000 barrels per day, down from the 580,000 barrels per day anticipated in August.
Since February 2026, when the organization initially estimated growth at 1.38 million barrels per day, the forecast has dropped by approximately 1 million barrels per day, representing a total reduction of 72%.
The September report sets the average global oil demand for 2026 at 105.84 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency maintains a more pessimistic outlook, projecting an absolute decline in demand for the year.
Geopolitical instability involving Iran has pushed Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel. This price level negatively impacts consumption, particularly in China and other Asia-Pacific economies.
Despite the current downward trend, OPEC has increased its 2027 demand growth forecast to 2.36 million barrels per day, citing expectations of a recovery once geopolitical tensions subside and price pressures ease.
