The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has shifted expectations for oil prices. Brent crude rose to $101.09 on Wednesday morning, marking its first time above $100 in six weeks. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $96.27.
Prediction markets are reacting strongly. On Myriad, the probability of crude oil reaching $120 before falling to $55 has risen to 56.5%, an increase of 15.1 points. This market has seen $12.7 million in volume since March.
On Polymarket, the probability of WTI reaching $100 this month is now 59%, up nine points. The chance of WTI hitting $105 is 30%, up 25 points, while the chance of reaching $90 is 71%, up 21 points.
The outlook for lower prices is declining. The probability of WTI dropping to $85 this month is down 33 points to 39%, and targets below that are in single digits. On Polymarket, the chance of WTI hitting $55 this month is only 1%.
The impact is already visible at pump prices. Diesel hit a record $5.94 per gallon on Wednesday, while gasoline averaged $4.22 per gallon.