Elon Musk stated that China will produce a significant volume of RAM by 2028. This forecast aligns with concerns raised in a Maeil Business Newspaper column, which warns that South Korea faces a potential memory chip oversupply by 2029 as new production capacity enters the market.
The South Korean economy currently relies heavily on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Analysts suggest the nation has only two to three years to cultivate new growth industries before the current memory chip cycle potentially reverses. The Bank of Korea has previously identified the AI chip trade as a financial stability risk.
Gartner data indicates that memory revenue is expected to reach $837 billion in 2026, accounting for 54% of global semiconductor sales, compared to 27% in 2025. The firm projects that revenue will exceed $1 trillion in 2027, despite ongoing concerns regarding supply levels.
Chinese competitor ChangXin Memory Technologies recently announced advancements in DRAM design. According to Counterpoint Research, the company held an 8% share of global DRAM revenue in the first quarter. Shares of Samsung and SK Hynix, which comprise approximately half of the KOSPI, have faced pressure following these developments.
