Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations and former US Trade Representative, warns that China's export-led growth model is reaching a structural limit. He argues that the global market's inability to absorb China's high production volume of cheap goods is unsustainable and could trigger a global economic crisis.
The scale of the imbalance is significant. In 2025, China's goods trade surplus reached nearly $1.2 trillion, growing at approximately three times the pace of overall global goods trade. In early 2026, trade surpluses continued to grow at a rate exceeding 20%.
Two key sectors are driving this growth. Chinese vehicle exports, primarily led by electric vehicles, increased by 21% in 2025 to reach $142 billion. Additionally, lithium-ion battery shipments in the same year reached $77 billion.
The risk is compounded by slow global economic expansion. The IMF projected global economic growth at 3.1% for 2026, a rate that Froman suggests is insufficient to absorb the rapid growth of the Chinese export sector.
