The McKinsey Global Institute released a report titled The global balance sheet 2026: Imbalance and divergence. It estimates the global balance sheet at approximately $1.8 quadrillion for 2025. Household net worth reached $570 trillion, marking a $40 trillion increase over the year.
This represents a 7.3% annual gain, exceeding the 5.9% long-term average since 2000. Only 20% of this wealth growth resulted from real capital formation, such as new infrastructure or factories. About 58% of the gains stemmed from the appreciation of existing assets, primarily driven by stock markets.
Equities accounted for 57% of household wealth creation in 2025, while real estate contributed 15%. In the US, equities reached 3.7 times the national GDP. Conversely, corporate debt in China reached 80% of real assets, significantly higher than the 50% global average.
McKinsey outlines four future scenarios for the global balance sheet. Only one, productivity acceleration through artificial intelligence, justifies current valuations. The other paths include persistent inflation, economic stagnation, or a balance-sheet reset involving a sharp correction in asset prices.
