Brent crude oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel this week amid rising tensions in the Middle East. JPMorgan strategists anticipate a potential rapid reversal of these prices, suggesting that current levels may act as a ceiling rather than a floor.
The bank maintains an average crude price forecast of $97 per barrel for 2026. This projection reflects a shift from earlier expectations, as previous forecasts of $120 to $150 per barrel have been revised downward due to faster-than-expected demand losses.
JPMorgan analysts noted that geopolitical conflicts previously pushed prices into the $105 to $118 range. A notable intraday spike to $105.94 occurred in May 2026, followed by a subsequent market pullback.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical factor, as approximately one-fifth of global petroleum supplies passes through this route. JPMorgan continues to monitor logistical and inventory issues tied to the strait as primary drivers for their price models.
Market expectations for the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16 have shifted toward a 25-basis-point rate hike. This change follows inflation data that exceeded initial projections, largely influenced by rising energy costs.
