Iraq, the second-largest producer in OPEC, has formally requested to increase its oil production baseline to 6 million barrels per day (bpd). This request, submitted on September 9, 2026, comes during an ongoing OPEC+ capacity audit conducted by an independent consultant. The proposed increase would be approximately 1.57 million bpd over the current quota of around 4.431 million bpd.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates Iraq's sustainable production capacity at around 4.9 million bpd, creating a gap of over 1 million bpd between the IEA's assessment and Baghdad's request. Furthermore, actual production in August 2026 ranged between 2.98 and 3.37 million bpd, which is significantly below both the current and requested quotas.
Baghdad's long-term goals are even more ambitious. Officials have signaled intentions to reach 7 million bpd in the near term and targets of 8 to 10 million bpd by 2030. These expansion plans are supported by investment partnerships with major oil companies, including BP, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and Chevron.
The outcome of the capacity audit, expected to be completed by the end of September, will influence the upcoming ministerial discussions in November. The result will also impact the commercial interests of investment partners like BP, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and Chevron, who have committed capital to expand Iraq's production capacity.