The latest AAII Sentiment Survey, published on September 18, 2026, indicates a sharp decline in investor optimism. Bullish sentiment fell to 28.8%, marking a 9.2 percentage point drop in one week and reaching its lowest level in approximately 16 months.
Bearish sentiment rose to 53.3%, an increase of 14 points week-over-week, hitting its highest point since May 2025. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment decreased by 4.8 points to 17.9%. These figures deviate significantly from historical averages of 37.5% bullish, 31.0% neutral, and 31.5% bearish.
Market participants attribute the shift to rising oil prices linked to the Iran conflict and a surprise interest rate hike of 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve. This move represents the first tightening action by the central bank since 2023.
Capital outflows reflect the pessimistic outlook. Global equity funds recorded net outflows of $23.21 billion, the largest volume in nine months. US equity funds saw even higher pressure, with outflows reaching $31.44 billion during the same period.
