According to the IEA September 2026 report, Russian crude production fell to 8.36 million barrels per day in August 2026. This figure represents a decline of 200,000 barrels per day compared to July and a drop of 695,000 barrels per day year-on-year.
The agency notes that Western sanctions limit access to essential repair equipment and technical expertise. Simultaneously, the frequency of drone strikes on oil infrastructure has doubled since early 2026, causing peak disruptions to refining capacity exceeding 700,000 barrels per day.
The IEA has lowered its 2026 production forecast for Russia by 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million barrels per day. The outlook for 2027 was reduced by 235,000 barrels per day, bringing the projected output to 8.6 million barrels per day.
Reduced refining capacity has led to domestic fuel shortages in several Russian regions. In response, authorities have prioritized crude exports and restricted the export of refined products to stabilize the local market.
