Goldman Sachs revised its Federal Reserve interest rate forecast twice between September 15 and 16, 2026. The bank initially predicted a single rate hike, but shifted to expecting a second increase in October following the FOMC meeting.
On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. This was the first rate increase since 2023. The decision followed a dot plot release where 16 of 18 policymakers signaled at least one more hike before the end of the year.
Following the announcement, the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike in October rose above 50% according to CME FedWatch data. Bitcoin traded at approximately $76 000, showing a 0.5% gain despite the tightening environment.
Historical data shows that during the 2022-2023 rate hike cycle, Bitcoin prices dropped from near $47 000 to below $16 000. Analysts note that higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and XRP.
