China has instructed domestic refiners to halt fuel exports throughout October, with the exception of shipments to Hong Kong and Macau. State-owned PetroChina has already cancelled several gasoline and jet-fuel cargoes. According to data from Kpler, China’s diesel reserves are currently 20 million barrels below pre-war levels as the government prioritizes domestic energy security.
Russia has extended its diesel export ban for an additional 30 days, citing high demand during the harvest season and a 45% reduction in refining capacity due to drone strikes. Meanwhile, the US Treasury reports that Iran loaded no crude oil onto tankers in September. The US administration has also warned Germany and France to release emergency diesel stocks to avoid a potential US export ban.
The Federal Reserve previously increased interest rates to a range of 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. Following reports of US inflation cooling to 3.4% in August, market expectations for a rate hike on October 28 have shifted. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a rate increase currently stands at 26%, down from 68.6% one week ago.
Economic analysts suggest that rising fuel costs could influence future inflation and Federal Reserve policy. Historically, a stronger dollar, often driven by higher interest rates, has exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. Market participants are now monitoring whether these energy supply constraints will impact the Federal Reserve's decision during its upcoming meeting.
