Galaxy Research reports that the bitcoin bear market concluded in June, citing technical indicators such as the recovery of the 50-week moving average. The firm suggests the asset has entered an accumulation phase, noting that the current 53% drawdown is the shallowest in the history of the cryptocurrency.
Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that net long positions in CME bitcoin futures held by asset managers dropped by 57% since the all-time high. Major firms, including Millennium Management and Goldman Sachs, reduced their spot ETF holdings by a combined 68,000 BTC between the third quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026.
Despite institutional selling, other entities like Morgan Stanley’s wealth management arm and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council increased their positions. Spot ETF holdings have grown by 87,000 BTC since the June low, reflecting a shift in market participation.
The firm highlights U.S. fiscal conditions as a fundamental driver, noting that federal debt reached $40.44 trillion on October 20, with a fiscal 2026 deficit of $1.99 trillion. Rising Treasury yields and government refinancing pressures are cited as factors potentially influencing future asset value.
Galaxy Research monitors sentiment shifts similar to previous cycles, where mainstream interest focused on blockchain technology rather than bitcoin. The firm maintains its outlook unless the weekly price closes below the 50-week moving average, currently near $76,540, without a recovery within one month.
