A study by Galaxy Research, published on October 1, 2026, analyzed 2.9 million retail accounts on the Polymarket prediction platform. The data covers the entire trading history of the site since its launch in 2020.
The analysis found that 69.2% of retail accounts finished below break-even, with cumulative losses totaling $338.9 million. In contrast, automated accounts, which were excluded from the retail category, collectively earned $246.8 million.
The middle 50% of retail accounts experienced results ranging from a loss of $36.64 to a gain of $0.40. Among the extremes, the top 1% of losers dropped up to $4,804, while the top 1% of gainers earned $3,381.
Trader behavior differs significantly based on outcomes: 15.2% of users stopped trading after a loss, compared to 6.1% after a win. Profitable traders maintained a median position size of $13.96, while unprofitable traders averaged $10.
Approximately 44.1% of users focused their activity on a single topic. The study accounts for various fee environments, including the period before Polymarket introduced taker fees in early 2026.
