Analysts at Fidelity suggest that the current bitcoin bear market may not be over yet. While a bottom could have occurred in July, historical four-year cycles indicate a potential new low around November. However, the firm warns that these cycles are not precise, as they have never lasted exactly four years.
Fidelity highlights changes in market volatility as a potential signal. Between June and mid-August, the market experienced low volatility, which often precedes a shift in momentum. During the third week of August, bitcoin rose by more than 25%, while Ethereum gained 34.1% and Solana increased by 28%.
Despite price fluctuations, Fidelity points to resilient blockchain infrastructure usage. Data from Bitwise shows that July stablecoin transaction volumes were 2.3 times higher than those of Visa. Additionally, the firm noted growth in the RWA market and highlighted the CLARITY Act, which is currently under review by the Senate.
The SEC is also considering the Regulation Crypto Assets proposal, which aims to exempt certain early-stage token offerings from standard securities registration requirements. This initiative is currently undergoing public consultation as regulators work to define frameworks for digital assets.