The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its FOMC meeting on September 15-16, with markets assigning a 90% probability to an interest rate hike. However, the Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to release updated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on September 30, which includes methodological revisions.
These revisions are expected to retroactively lower core PCE readings by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points. The update is part of the 2026 annual national accounts revision, which recalibrates inflation measurement for technology and service sectors, including cloud computing and streaming, dating back to 2021.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan estimate that the May 2026 core PCE could be adjusted downward from 3.4% to a range of 3.2% to 3.3%. July core PCE was reported at 3.3%, while the headline figure reached 3.7%.
The timing creates a two-week period of uncertainty for investors. Market participants anticipate that if the revised data shows lower inflation than previously reported, expectations for future monetary policy, including potential pauses or reversals at the November meeting, may shift.
