Diesel crack spreads and futures prices have reached record levels due to supply disruptions and concerns over potential export bans in Russia and the United States. Russia has extended its existing diesel export ban until September 30, which continues to exert pressure on global supply conditions.
In the United States, diesel crack spreads hit an intraday peak of $108.02 per barrel in early September, with recent reports indicating a price around $101.1 per barrel. Simultaneously, retail diesel prices in the U.S. have climbed to a record high of $5.85 per gallon.
Market participants are evaluating the likelihood of crude oil prices hitting new all-time highs. Current market data suggests a 1.6% probability of this occurring by September 30, while the probability for December 31 is estimated at 16%.
Investors are now focused on potential official announcements regarding a possible U.S. diesel export ban, which could further restrict supply. Observers are also tracking potential policy shifts in Russia after September 30, as these factors remain critical for global energy markets.
