The Federal Reserve publishes its Summary of Economic Projections quarterly, featuring a dot plot that maps interest rate forecasts from 19 FOMC participants. Each dot represents an anonymous individual prediction for year-end rates, which can change significantly between meetings based on incoming economic data.
Following the FOMC meeting on June 16-17, 2026, the median federal funds rate projection for the end of 2026 was set at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March 2026. Projections for subsequent years indicate rates of 3.6% by the end of 2027 and 3.4% by the end of 2028.
Economic forecasts for 2026 include a 2.2% real GDP growth and a 4.3% unemployment rate, which is also expected for 2027. Core PCE inflation is projected at 3.3% for 2026, remaining above the Fed's 2% target. The long-run neutral rate is estimated at 3.1%.
Market participants monitor the gap between current rates and the median dot to gauge future policy shifts. A narrowing gap, as observed between March and June 2026, suggests that tighter financial conditions may persist longer than previously anticipated.
