Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, anticipates that the current Bitcoin bull cycle will result in gains of 3 to 5 times, rather than a 10-fold increase. He suggests that the market is shifting toward a more stable trajectory, which may lead to a less severe bear market compared to previous cycles.
The analyst attributes this change to a shift in the investor base, noting a rise in institutional ownership. According to Ju, the influx of long-horizon capital replaces the volatile retail money that previously drove 80% market crashes. On-chain metrics, such as the MVRV ratio, have remained above 1 throughout the current cycle, indicating that holders have not collectively fallen into a loss.
Bitcoin reached $87,395 on September 21, marking its highest level since late January. This followed a weekly close above the 50-week moving average, a milestone achieved after 45 weeks of trading below that level. The asset price hit a low of near $58,000 in late June and has since risen by approximately 49%.
Based on the June lows, a 3-fold increase would place the price at roughly $174,000, while 4-fold and 5-fold gains would reach approximately $232,000 and $290,000 respectively. These projections align with forecasts from VanEck, which include targets of $100,000 for next year and $500,000 by 2029.
