Copper prices have retreated following a surge earlier this month, when they exceeded $14,500 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange and neared $6.8 per pound on COMEX. The decline follows the release of US inflation data as of September 11, which showed a 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year increase in headline CPI, while core CPI rose 0.3% for the month.
Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the upcoming September 15–16 FOMC meeting have risen to between 85% and 88%. Analysts note that higher interest rates strengthen the US dollar, increasing costs for international buyers and the manufacturing sector. This dynamic is compounded by the Fed's hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh throughout 2026.
The International Energy Agency has identified copper as a critical mineral facing potential supply shortages over the next decade. Current market pressure is further influenced by concerns that a stronger dollar may dampen import demand from China, the world's largest consumer of the metal. Investors are now focused on potential guidance regarding future rate paths beyond September.
