Copper prices approached $6.80 per pound on Tuesday, remaining approximately 2% below the record high set in September. On the London Metal Exchange, the price increased by 0.5% to reach $6.63 per pound, marking a 17% rise since the beginning of 2026.
Market sentiment is influenced by Federal Reserve policy, with CME FedWatch data indicating an 80.6% probability that the Fed will maintain current interest rates at the October 28 meeting. The target range for rates is currently set at 3.75%–4.00% following a 25 basis point increase in September.
Supply constraints are intensifying due to mining disruptions. Codelco partially suspended operations at its El Teniente mine in Chile following a mudslide. Additionally, the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is operating at 67% capacity, with full recovery not anticipated until the end of 2027.
Morgan Stanley projects a copper deficit of approximately 600,000 tons for the current year. Analysts suggest that if the price surpasses the September record of $6.95, the next target could reach $7 per pound. Conversely, a drop below $6.55 could signal a correction.
Future market volatility may occur on October 14, when the United States releases new inflation data. This report is expected to influence Federal Reserve decisions regarding interest rates, which directly impact the performance of industrial metals.
