The probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by 2026 has declined to 6 percent, down from 18 percent just one week ago. Market participants suggest that recent temporary guidance issued by the SEC and the CFTC has diminished the immediate urgency for formal legislative action.
While bipartisan discussions regarding the bill remain ongoing, the current regulatory environment for digital assets in the United States continues to rely on interim agency measures. The lack of a permanent legislative framework keeps long-term expectations uncertain for industry stakeholders.
Future developments may depend on statements from key political figures, including President Donald Trump and Senate leadership. Market observers are also tracking potential shifts in bipartisan negotiations and any further updates to agency rules that could influence the bill's prospects.
