Scott Rubner, head of equity and derivatives strategy at Citadel Securities, expects AI-related stocks to potentially outperform following the US midterm elections. According to Rubner, institutional clients are currently delaying new purchases until the election results are finalized to mitigate uncertainty.
Despite institutional caution, retail traders on the Citadel platform recently executed a net purchase of $9.1 billion in US equities, marking the highest weekly volume in 15 weeks. A significant portion of this activity, totaling $2.6 billion, was directed specifically toward semiconductor and chip-related stocks.
Market sentiment toward AI experienced a decline in September 2026 due to a reduction in leverage and broader instability. However, Rubner notes that corporate share buybacks and the third-quarter earnings season, both expected to begin in early November, may serve as additional catalysts for market demand.
Historical data since 1930 indicates that the S&P 500 has recorded average fourth-quarter gains of 5.5–5.6% during midterm election years. Rubner views the upcoming election as a clearing event for risk that could resolve current market stagnation.
